Value-tier migration refers to the shift in consumer purchasing behavior from one price tier of products or brands to another. Typically, this involves movement between three broad tiers: premium, middle (mid-tier), and value (budget) offerings. These shifts can be long-term or temporary, driven by a mix of economic, psychological, and lifestyle factors.

In 2025, value-tier migration is more than a trend – it’s a reflection of how consumers are adapting to continued economic pressure. As inflation lingers and household costs stay elevated, many shoppers are reassessing what brands they can reliably afford or are worth stretching for. This creates meaningful changes in brand loyalty and spending patterns across categories like packaged goods, personal care, household items, and more.

Why does value-tier migration matter now more than ever?

• Pressure from inflation: Many consumers feel financial strain due to price increases. Even high-income shoppers are reevaluating premium brand purchases or switching to store brands.
• Brand switching risk: If customers trade down from a premium to a value-tier option – and don’t return – it poses a reputational and revenue challenge for brand owners.
• Opportunity for growth: Value brands may gain share, but only if they understand why and how consumers are arriving at them. Likewise, premium brands can win back shoppers with the right innovation or messaging.

Shifts aren’t always about price

While cost is a major driver, value-tier migration can also be tied to perceived value, product availability, brand ethics, or even changes in family routines. What looks like a budget choice could actually be a lifestyle shift or a preference test.

This matters across the business

Understanding who is migrating, when, and why allows cross-functional teams to:

• Rethink pricing strategies to retain shoppers
• Tailor messaging for segments under pressure
• Guide innovation toward consumer priorities
• Identify at-risk consumer groups before loyalty erodes further

As consumer behavior continues to evolve, tracking this migration accurately – with sound strategy and clear interpretation – becomes essential for staying ahead of shifting demand.

Numerator has become one of the most widely used DIY research tools for tracking shopper behavior in near real time. For teams looking to examine value-tier migration on their own, Numerator offers extensive purchase data, loyalty flags, shopper segments, and brand tracking features that can surface tier-switching patterns across CPG categories and more.

But even with its capabilities, understanding how to use Numerator to detect tier shifts – and, more importantly, to draw the right strategic conclusions from them – can be tricky.

How to track value-tier migration in Numerator

To start, you need a clear definition of the brand tiers you're analyzing. Tier definitions can be subjective, and many teams make the mistake of applying price alone – without considering shopper perception. Align on categories like premium, value, and mid-market options across your brand set before pulling the data.

Next, use Numerator’s consumer behavior filters to explore how specific groups are shopping over time. Look for changes in purchase volume, repeat purchase frequency, and buyer composition across your brand tiers. These metrics can signal brand switching from premium to value shoppers – or the reverse – due to economic pressures or product changes.

Common pitfalls in using DIY tools like Numerator

• Misclassifying tiers: Without standardized tier frameworks, what one analyst calls “mid-tier” another may see as “premium.” This causes inconsistent data interpretation.
• Overreliance on static panels: While Numerator’s panel data is rich, it may not capture emerging behaviors from newer or occasional shoppers who influence migration patterns.
• Missing context behind moves: The ‘what’ behind brand switching is visible in the charts – but the ‘why’ often isn't. Without qualitative support or behavioral context, migration insights can be misread.

How expert support leads to better insights

This is where On Demand Talent can make the difference. By teaming up with experienced insights professionals who know Numerator inside and out, brands can:

• Ensure proper classification of value tiers relevant to your category and market
• Combine behavioral insights with raw data to uncover the real stories behind consumer shifts
• Avoid data overload, focusing only on the metrics that support business-critical questions
• Coach internal teams on how to interpret findings and use DIY tools more effectively long-term

DIY doesn’t have to mean ‘do it alone.’ As companies invest more in tools like Numerator to respond quickly to market changes, pairing software with experienced On Demand Talent provides the best of both worlds – speed and agility, backed by expertise that ensures insights are accurate and actionable.

Numerator is a powerful DIY research tool that provides granular data around brand switching and consumer purchasing behavior. For companies looking to track value-tier migration – the shift between premium, mid-tier, and value brands – Numerator offers visibility into shopper dynamics across economic cycles. However, using Numerator alone can come with challenges, especially when interpreting behavioral shifts or attributing those shifts to key drivers.

Data in Numerator can answer the 'what' – for example, what percentage of consumers have switched from a premium brand to a value brand in the past quarter. But it often falls short on the 'why.' Understanding the underlying causes of these changes – such as inflation pressure, new brand positioning, or shifting shopper attitudes – requires expert analysis and strategic context.

Key Pitfalls to Watch for in DIY Migration Analysis

• Misinterpreting shopper switchers: Numerator can flag that shoppers moved from Brand A to Brand B, but DIY analysts may incorrectly assume it's a permanent switch. In reality, it may be a short-term trial driven by temporary promotions or availability issues.
• Segmenting too broadly: Using standard demographic groups (e.g. all women age 18–49) may mask key behavioral nuances like price sensitivity, loyalty, or purchase cycles that are critical to understanding migration patterns.
• Forgetting economic context: Value-tier migration often spikes during economic downturns. Without weaving in insights like unemployment trends or consumer confidence data, teams risk attributing behavior to brand performance rather than macroeconomic pressures.
• Data overload without direction: Numerator offers a large volume of data, but without a cohesive strategy or trained analyst, insights can become overwhelming or misaligned with business priorities.

For example, a consumer insights team might notice an uptick in shoppers moving to a budget household product. But without deeper analysis, they can't determine whether these are loyal consumers reacting to inflation – or new shoppers experimenting with different brands. These types of uncertainties make it hard for business leaders to take confident action.

That’s why advanced interpretation – often by experienced professionals who understand both the platform and the broader consumer landscape – is critical when using DIY tools like Numerator.

When companies rely solely on internal teams or generalist analysts, they may miss the nuanced insights buried in tools like Numerator. That’s where SIVO’s On Demand Talent becomes a valuable extension to consumer insights teams. These professionals don’t just pull data – they know how to translate it into business-ready strategies with the full economic picture in mind.

For instance, if Numerator highlights a surge in value-brand purchases, an On Demand Talent professional can dig deeper into behavioral insights and layer in economic context – such as rising interest rates or inflation concerns – to explain what’s actually driving migration. This helps business leaders avoid overreacting to false positives or lagging indicators.

Here’s how On Demand Talent adds value to DIY market research tools like Numerator:

• Contextualizing raw numbers: They analyze beyond price points and SKUs, helping you understand why premium vs value shoppers are behaving differently right now.
• Creating sharper segments: SIVO professionals can segment consumers by attitudes, motivations, or purchase patterns rather than broad demographics – unlocking deeper behavioral insights.
• Eliminating confirmation bias: It’s easy for internal teams to see what they expect to see. On Demand Talent offers fresh, objective interpretation that challenges assumptions and drives clarity.
• Turning findings into strategy: From refining brand positioning to piloting new pricing models, these experts turn migration data into concrete actions that support growth.

Consider a fictional example: a mid-tier beverage brand used Numerator to track that it was losing shoppers to premium sparkling waters during a strong economic quarter. Working with an On Demand Talent resource, the team learned the shift was due to emerging health trends coupled with targeted influencer campaigns – not price sensitivity. The insight allowed the brand to pivot messaging and recover share.

These professionals don’t just fill gaps; they build capability. As internal teams grow more comfortable with tools like Numerator, On Demand Talent can upskill them – ensuring research stays high-quality in fast-moving environments.

DIY research tools like Numerator are empowering consumer insights teams to do more, faster – but they aren’t foolproof. Knowing when to bring in expert support ensures that you’re not just collecting data, but correctly interpreting and activating it.

Here are a few signs your team might benefit from additional expertise:

1. You’re seeing brand switching data, but can’t explain why

Identifying movement is only the first part. If your team is unsure whether migration is due to pricing, innovation, shelf placement, or competitor activity, expert analysts can help isolate the causes using deeper behavioral interpretation.

2. Your team is maxed out or facing skill gaps

DIY tools require both time and technical skill. When your internal talent is already spread thin or lacks experience working with tier migration data, SIVO's On Demand Talent can jump in and deliver without lengthy onboarding or training.

3. Reporting lacks actionability

If your reports are heavy on charts but light on recommendations, it’s time to bring in strategic thinkers. On Demand professionals understand what leadership needs and can connect data insights directly to brand, marketing, or category strategies.

4. You’re investing in tools but not seeing ROI

Too often, companies invest in platforms without ensuring they’re being used to their full potential. Our On Demand Talent can help teams get better data returns, sharpen analysis, and build long-term capability through mentorship.

Working with SIVO’s network means gaining access to highly skilled researchers and strategists who can drive real business impact – without the long lead times or costs of traditional recruitment or agencies.

Whether you need help on a short-term project, coverage during a leave, or specialized knowledge during a product launch or market shift, getting access to the right expertise at the right moment can completely change the outcomes of your consumer insights program.